xELO: GWs 5 & 6

by @FantasianPL

Happy to finally have a chance to talk a bit about the upcoming gameweek. First, last week’s results. After a wild Gameweek 4, 5 had many more “expected” results.

Everton, Southampton, Chelsea, and West Ham the overachievers and Palace, Leicester, Wolves, and Manchester City under performing. Now how do these compare to early trends this season?

Over the five Gameweeks, the Gameweek 5 overachievers Everton, and West Ham seem to be making a habit of this while Chelsea hope to turn their luck around. It was consistent results for three of the underachievers in Gameweek 5 with only Palace averaging close to their (very low) predicted results. Other season trends for offense (still a small sample size) to note: 

Manchester United with an expected result in Gameweek 5 to bring their average up a little bit (still a poor average)

Sheffield United, Burnley, West Brom, and Fulham all underachieving on the season.

Brighton, Aston Villa, Leeds, and Liverpool are the other overachievers on the season.

Looking at the defensive side of things:

The six predicted best defenses are six of seven teams underperforming, with MUN the best predicted with the worst results. Some of these come down to one or two games (Wolves vs West Ham, for example), so don’t write these teams off without consideration. 

Aston Villa the standout defense. Looking back to last season, there was a massive improvement at the restart and they have been carrying it on. The model is reacting, but still seems to have a ways to go.

Leeds were predicted worst but have managed a good defensive showing. This may be a result of an inaccurate preseason rating and their predictions may be a little low until the model adjusts.

Everton, Burnley, Brighton, and West Ham the other standout defenses so far.

For the upcoming Gameweek:

Manchester City and Liverpool top the xG predictions. The one I would note is the Manchester City prediction. The City attack has been underperforming and West Ham defense has been over performing. While I expect City’s form to change at some point, this week may be a tougher matchup than it looks. 

Wolves are also worth mentioning as third for predicted xG and second for xGC. Both have had some struggles, but the home fixture versus Newcastle may still be a decent shout. 

Manchester United versus Chelsea and Arsenal versus Leicester could be tough fixtures and the predicted results reflect this. Leicester’s predicted xG still fourth with a stronger offensive rating on the road versus an Arsenal defense worse at home.

Aston Villa and Brighton are fifth and six for predicted xG. Aston Villa (overperforming offense) vs Leeds (overperforming defense) may be predicted about right. Brighton home versus West Brom also looks a good fixture. 

Tottenham away at Burnley is predicted to be not as favourable as the community would suggest. While the model is slow to adjust to Tottenham, it is worth noting that Burnley have been overachieving defensively as well. Personnel may be the issue, though, as the Burnley back line will be missing a number of assets.

I think that is about all for this week. I hope to be back next week to go over it all again. Good luck in Gameweek 6!