Player Comp: Premium Def

by @TheSchachter

For those of you who played ChampManFPL, you already know me. For those of you who didn’t – here’s a short introduction about myself and about the SRS model I will be sharing throughout the season – Link to GW17 ChampMan article.

For the 2nd article in this series, we will focus on premium defenders. Trent is currently owned by 54% and should be at 100% in my opinion, so I will not cover his stats. Instead we will look at defenders 2-4 last year. Those are:

First defender we will look at is – Andy Robertson.

Robertson is amazing right? Let’s see how amazing exactly he is. Last season he got 13 CS, 7 of those away from home. I believe that if not for COVID19 that number would have been even higher. He added to those 12 assists and 2 goals, spread evenly between home and away. What is most interesting about Robo is that he performed extremely well in FDR3 & 4 games, more than he did in the FDR2 games. You can trust him as a season long keeper with those stats. Liverpool first 5 fixtures are meh, but the stats above establish that that doesn’t mean a lot for Andy.

Second defender is Virgil van Dijk

For a 0.5m less than Robo you get Virgil who provided only 3 less points than the guy above. This 0.5m could mean much more elsewhere in the game. 15 CS, 5 G, 2 A. His attacking returns come mostly at home and he is the most nailed player in the league probably. Virgil performs much better in the easier games (fantasy wise) and could provide an easy route for a Liverpool defensive double up. I would be more worried about Liverpool fixtures in VVD’s case, as he is more reliable in the easier games.

Third defender is Matt Doherty
One of my best FPL memories, is bringing Doherty in 2 seasons ago, when he was priced 4.3. The value he brought to me was crucial for my season. Having completed his move to the Spurs, Doherty presents a difficult dilemma for FPL managers. Last season Wolves defense was much better than Spurs defense and the same goes to their attack (they somehow managed to finish below them though). It is really hard to say how his contributions will translate to his new team. Looking at last season stats 4 G 8 A, he is a real attacking threat. Consistent across all FDRs and home and away. Spurs fixtures are tasty to begin with, with 6 FDR2 games in the first 8. I am pretty sure to start with a Spurs player but can’t say I fully believe in Doherty.

Now, for the comparison data. Check it out:

Robo is the best across multiple categories here. I especially like the Key passes stat with 60 in comparison to Doherty’s 21 (how does he get these many assists??) and VVD’s 7. Robo also leads in Bonus points, assists, xA and bps per game, making him the most creative from the bunch. However, is he worth 0.5/1m more than the other two? I’m not so sure. Especially if you already have TAA. Doherty leads the shots and xG categories (no surprises here) but will he be as much in the box under Mourinho is a wait and see. Doherty was nailed in my team before the move, I’m not so sure now, but I might give him a go anyways. To conclude, the decision between the 3 is hard – are you looking for a Liverpool double up? Do you believe in Mourinho’s 2nd season phenomenon?

Let me know what players you want to see compared @TheSchachter