By Matthew Milton aka @LeafyDragon_FPL
A look back at the distant memory of my GW4 picks…
6 Raul Jimenez – 2pts ❌
5 Chris Wood – 2pts ❌
4 Raheem Sterling – 9pts ✅
3 Aleksandar Mitrovic – 2pts ❌
2 Danny Ings – 2pts ❌2
1 Harry Kane – 16pts ✅
Another poor week for predictions but that’s what happens when the Premier League has become the equivalent of a Vincent Van Gogh painting on meth. An unpredictable, confusing mess. So many questions…
If you were wondering, I’m now on a success rate of 50%(12/24 picks have hauled). The average points scored by my picks is 6.2. Yeah get me.
Gameweek 5 Half Dozen
I am getting to the stage of this where I want certain players to stop taking so many shots in the box because they’re ruining my success rate. This week looks like I have trawled through the mediocre, bargain bucket striker section of FPL. Remember though, these are guys who have taken lots of shots in the box, playing defences who have conceded many a shot in the box so far this season. Let’s dive in…
Six: Patrick Bamford (£5.8m) v WOL (h)
I was shocked when the “shots in the box -ometer” spat out this name. He has had a good start to life as a Premier League striker for Leeds United, however I get the impression that it’s going to be short lived as Rodrigo is breathing down his neck. In his first 4 games, he has amassed a total of 10 shots in the box. Leeds have managed the THIRD HIGHEST amount of shots on target in the league so far this season. His opponent, Wolves, have allowed 35 shots in the box in 4 games (5th highest in the division). With all this considered, you can see how Bamford is fancied to return points, as long as he starts ahead of a Spanish international fresh from duty. Bamford’s aSITB score is 5.58.
Five: Aleksandar Mitrovic (£5.9m) v SHU (a)
Him again. F*cking sick of him. Fulham are sh*t. Mitrovic seems to take a lot of shots (4th highest for shots in the box in the division). I’m not saying anything else about him. Sheffield United have started the season poorly and have failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season. They have conceded 32 shots in the box this season so far. Mitrovic’s aSITB score is 5.58.
Four: Ollie Watkins (£5.9m) v LEI (a)
Aston Villa seem a very impressive side at the moment and their run of fixtures until Christmas are tough to ignore. It’s easy to say after he’s scored a hat trick in a 7-2 win over the reigning champions but I think Watkins is a fantastic FPL asset. He has 10 shots in the box after playing a game less than most other strikers. He plays Leicester, who look likely to be without Caglar Soyuncu and Ricardo Pereira. They have conceded the same number of shots in the box as Sheffield United (32) and have only kept one clean sheet in 4 games. With Jack Grealish itching to set Gareth Southgate straight and Aston Villa on a roll, it’s hard to look past Watkins getting on the scoresheet. His aSITB score is 5.67.
Three: Chris Wood (£6.4m) v WBA (a)
Am I allowed to just say “cause it’s West Brom”? Burnley were terrible against the mighty, high octane Newcastle United. I believe Burnley will want a reaction and see this game as a vital opportunity to get points on the board. I remain confident that Chris Wood will be Burnley’s main man should Burnley come away with the 3 points. Wood has had a minute 6 shots on target after three games however, it is the defensive data attached to WBA that brings Wood into contention. WBA have conceded the second highest amount of shots in the box (42) and conceded the most goals so far (13). Woods aSITB score is 6.25.
Two: Callum Wilson (£6.5m) v MUN (h)
I think I might be in love with Callum Wilson. In my head, Newcastle United will beat Manchester United 5-0, with Wilson grabbing a hat trick but I will settle for just the one goal from him in a 4-0 win. Callum Wilson is the MAN at NUFC and he has backed that up by scoring 4 goals. This is largely influenced by the fact he had already had two penalties but a goal is a goal. He has managed 8 shots in the box. It wouldn’t be a “post – Sir Alex Ferguson season” without a crisis at some stage of the campaign and Man Utd have decided to start the season with one, this year. They’ve conceded 37 shots in the box, which is the third highest even though they’ve played one game less than most teams. They have also conceded the joint second highest amount of goals in the league. Wilson’s aSITB score is 6.33.
One: Raul Jimenez (£8.6m) v LEE (a)
How did he not score against Fulham 🤦♂️. Anyway, Reliable Raul is back and this week, he is my number one pick. I’m expecting Leeds to continue their entertaining trend by being one of the most attacking but defensively frail teams in the league. Jimenez has 11 shots in the box so far this season. Leeds have conceded the MOST shots in the box of any team so far this season (49). I truly see this being a high scoring and open game, which could be game of the gameweek (is that even a thing?). Jimenez’s aSITB score is 7.42.
After a long and tedious international break, it’s a relief to be able to welcome FPL back into our weekend. Here’s hoping all the yellow flags disappear and there’s a nice balance between entertaining unpredictability and scenarios that actually return FPL points. We all deserve a high scoring week. Do you think I’ve jinxed it enough?
Until next time,
Matt 🌿🐲 @LeafyDragon_FPL