By Matthew Milton aka @LeafyDragon_FPL
Ahoy! Welcome to another addition of my half dozen picks for the next GW, based on shots in the box data for both player and upcoming opponent.
It was a very successful week for my picks, in gameweek 20, with 5 out of 6 players returning. Lets see how they did…
6️⃣ Ollie Watkins – 6pts
5️⃣ Sadio Mane – 15pts
4️⃣ Raheem Sterling – 11pts
3️⃣ Roberto Firmino – 7pts
2️⃣ Phil Foden – 1pt
1️⃣ lkay Gundogan – 14pts
I’m disappointed in Foden but, on another day, he could have easily been involved in City’s demolition of West Brom.
Without further ado, here are GW21’s top picks based on shots in the box by player and shots in the box conceded by upcoming opponent.
Six: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m) v NEW (h)
Big Bad Dom is back! Calvert Lewin is the fourth highest scoring striker in FPL this season. He has provided 6 points or more in 8 of the 17 games he has played. His goalscoring form has slipped away and this has coincided with James Rodriguez’s struggles for fitness. Now James and Digne are back, it could be time to jump back on DCL. He has had 11 shots in the box in his last 6 matches. He plays Newcastle United, who are winless in 11 games in all competitions, conceding 2+ goals in 7 of those winless fixtures. They have also conceded 54 shots in the box in their last 6 league games. I believe DCL will shine in a full strength Everton side against a Newcastle team lacking hope and direction.
Five: Harvey Barnes (£6.8m) v LEE (h)
Harvey Barnes has scored 6+ FPL points in 5 of his last 6 gameweek. He is on a hot streak and his attacking stats back it up. He has had 9 shots in the box, scored 2 goals and assisted 3 times in the last 6 games. Leicester are without Vardy but this could compliment Barnes as he will need to get involved more. His opponents, Leeds, have the joint third highest total of shots conceded in the box (59) and have conceded the joint second highest number of goals (11), in their last 6 games. They also have the second highest xGC of all teams, only to West Brom. I think Madison/Barnes will have a spike in ownership/captaincy, in the top 10k, this week.
Four: Ollie Watkins (£6.2m) v SOU (a)
It was a surprising defeat for Aston Villa against Burnley but Watkins still managed to find his way onto the scoresheet. This is no shock as he is currently leading the charts for shots in the box amongst all players in the last 6 fixtures (19). He has the second highest xG in that time with 3.70, with Lacazette top in that respect with 4.16. Southampton have conceded an average amount of shots in the box (50) in the last 6 games. They have conceded, on average, a goal a game in that time. Although 5 of those 6 goals have been conceded in their last 2 games. I’m backing both teams to score in this fixture with Watkins continuing his scoring run.
Three: Danny Ings (£8.4m) v AVL (h)
Danny Ings, like DCL is a player, who was very popular at the beginning of the season and has recently come back from an injury. He has not quite found his goalscoring boots yet (one goal in his last 6). He has had 10 shots in the box in his last 6 games (9th highest of all strikers). He plays Aston Villa, who are the joint third highest for shots in the box conceded in the last 6 games (59 – equal with Leeds). They have also conceded the fourth highest number of goals in those 6 games (8). They are without an away clean sheet in four matches. I’m predicting Ings grabs at least a goal v The Villians – his price, however could be what puts me off.
Two: Olivier Giroud (£6.7m) v BUR (h)
A surprising selection but based on shots in the box data, Giroud is up there. As long as he plays, he is a viable option this week (probably not long term). He has had 16 shots in the box in his previous 6 games. This is the 4th highest total of all players. In that time he’s scored 3 goals. Burnley have conceded the second highest number of shots in the box in the past 6 games (61). Although, Burnley may be well equipped to deal with crosses into Giroud. If you’re after a one week punt and a decent first sub, then Giroud against Burnley could be your man.
One: Ademola Lookman (£5m) v WBA (a)
This is a bit of a mad one. Lookman has a very low ownership (1.3%) and looks to be Fulham’s most prominent attacker (9 shots in the box in the last 6). As this could be called a must win game, Fulham may call upon Lookman to be the one to break down the leaky West Brom defence. West Brom are the only team to have conceded over 100 shots in the league. Of those shots, 68 have been in the box. Once again we are targeting West Brom and I think Lookman will get some joy in a high stakes game.
I hope this has given you some food for thought before making those GW21 transfers.
Until next time,
Matt 🌿🐲 @LeafyDragon_FPL