Leafy Dragon’s Half Dozen: Gameweek 4 Picks
By Matthew Milton aka @LeafyDragon_FPL
Nothing much to shout about here… GW3 failure.
6 Gabriel Jesus – Dead 🚑
5 Mo Salah – 5pts ✅
4 Ollie Watkins – 2pts ❌
3 Callum Wilson – 8pts ✅
2 Che Adams – 2pts ❌
1 Timo Werner – 2pts ❌
I picked the wrong Saints striker, Chelsea’s striker didn’t return even though his team scored three goals and Aston Villa’s striker replicated Werner’s feat. Never the less, it’s 10/18 returns so far and an average of 6.44 points per pick after 3 gameweeks.
Gameweek 4 Half Dozen
So, another gameweek, another set of picks, selected purely based on shots in the box data from both the player and their opposition’s historical shots in the box conceded. As I use 6 GWs of data to provide a SITB score, I have doubled the number of shots in the box for those who have played 3 times and tripled it for those who have played 2 games. I dream of GW7 when I can settle on using pure untampered with data. Let’s pick some good players for this then ey?
Six: Raul Jimenez (£8.6m) v FUL (h)
The Max-Bonus Mexican, the Nine-Point Powerhouse, Reliable Raul. Raul Jimenez is arguably one of the most FPL friendly assets we have had but also the most frustrating. He can tease you into thinking that nine points isn’t a great deal and you can get more points elsewhere, only to come crawling back 6 gameweeks later. “He won’t get you many double digit returns” is the regular narrative around the Wolves target man but this week maybe, just maybe, he destroys that belief. Jimenez has 9 shots in the box and 2 goals, in 3 games. He plays Fulham, who (I write this every week) are just not very good at football in the Premier League. They have conceded 27 shots in the box (6th highest) and 10 goals (2nd highest, in 3 games. After Wolves’ off day against West Ham, I expect a big reaction and the poor Cottagers are going to be feasted on by a hungry pack. Jimenez’s aSITB score is 6.0.
Five: Chris Wood (£6.5m) v NEW (a)
This pick gives me Wood (add canned laughter here). Seriously, I rate Chris Wood. His performances at the back end of last season were impressive and if anyone is going to score for Burnley, it’s likely to be him. Wood has had 4 shots in the box in 2 games, which isn’t outstanding and Burnley have many injuries but the main attraction here isn’t Wood’s “fox-in-the-box-iness”, its Newcastle United and their poor performances of late. It appears that Newcastle United have continued on the same trend they started last season – play terribly, deserve nothing, get something. That phrase sums up Steve Bruce’s tenure perfectly and you have to wonder when this, I’m going to say it, dumb luck will finally run out. They have conceded 31 shots in the box (3rd highest) and 21 shots on target (2nd highest) in 3 games. I expect Burnley to take their chances and get some much needed points on the board against a ropey NUFC. Wood’s aSITB score is 6.17.
Four: Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) v LEE (a)
I own Kevin De Bruyne but I wish I owned both him and Raheem Sterling. Although Manchester City had a tough time against Leicester, Manchester City face a Leeds side who have very much held their own (P3, W2, L1) however they have shipped a grand total of 7 goals in three games. Now, this is not me saying that Manchester City will have an easy game against Leeds. What I will say is that this has the makings to be an incredibly open and high scoring game. Step forward, Raheem Sterling. Raheem has 3 shots in the box in 2 games and sadly that is not so high for a forward player of the most attacking and high scoring side in the league. It’s when you consider that Leeds have conceded 33 shots in the box in 3 games (2nd highest), that Sterling begins to look like a very strong FPL option this gameweek. His aSITB score is 6.25.
Three: Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.0m) v WOL (a)
I’m not kidding. Wolves were dreadful against West Ham and shockingly, they have conceded the fourth highest shots in the box after 3 gameweeks (29). That’s more than Sheffield United and Fulham, who you would consider to have had a poor start to the season. Mitrovic has had 10 shots in the box in 3 games (4th highest) and an xG of 2.0 (identical to Danny Ings). It will be interesting to see if Wolves can turn a corner from their disaster result against West Ham, but if that is a sign of long term defensive frailty, then Mitrovic will be ready to pounce. His aSITB score is 6.50.
Two: Danny Ings (£8.4m) v WBA (h)
Now that I’ve picked Ings, Che Adams will get a hattrick. Danny Ings has carried on the form, which propelled him to the business end of the top goalscorer charts last season. Southampton haven’t had the strongest start (P3, W1, L2) but have managed to score 3 goals in their opening 3 games. Ings has had 6 shots in the box and has 5 shots on target in his first 3 games. He faces a West Brom side, who are yet to concede less than 3 goals this season. They have conceded 34 shots in the box and 24 shots on target (league highest). It’s hard to imagine a scenario where West Brom do not concede at least 2 goals. With Danny Ings around, you’d expect him to get at least one of those goals. His aSITB score is 6.67.
One: Harry Kane (£10.5m) v MUN (a)
I’m as surprised as you are. When this came out as the number one pick this week I had to double check. Kane has been behind every Spurs goal (6 attacking returns this season) and has scored a hattrick midweek in the Carabao Cup. Tottenham will play a Manchester United that looks lackluster. Shockingly, Man Utd have conceded 21 shots in the box in 2 games (one less than what Chelsea have conceded in three games). Although they have the potential to rip teams apart in attack, defensively, they appear very vulnerable and were outpassed by Brighton (488-445) and allowed Brighton to have 18 shots at goal. Kane’s aSITB score is 6.92.
Another week, another infinite number of possibilities, which will probably mean the worst possible outcome for all involved! Enjoy your gameweek everyone! I’ll let you all know on Twitter whether I’m a big fraud or the next FPLGeneral.
Until next time,
Matt 🌿🐲 @LeafyDragon_FPL