Half Dozen: Gameweek 3 Picks

Leafy Dragon’s Half Dozen: Gameweek 3 Picks

By Matthew Milton aka @LeafyDragon_FPL

“Why has all the rum gone?” A look back at GW2…

6 Danny Ings – 11pts ✅

5 Leandro Trossard – 6pts ✅

4 Jamie Vardy – 2pts ❌

3 Callum Wilson – 2pts ❌

2 Richarlison – 12pts ✅

1 Dominic Calvert-Lewin – 17pts ✅

Another week, another 4/6 hauls. Can I start to claim that my shots in the box tomfoolery is actually pretty effective yet? Over the first 2 gameweeks, my picks have scored a whopping 97 points combined. That’s an average of over 8pts per pick so far. But, I was on a wildcard this week and didn’t put in ANY of my picks. My team didn’t even register a goal in the highest GW for goals ever in the Premier League. If you’re thinking “wtf am I reading this guy’s article for?”, you’d be very within your right to question. But the success rate of my picks doesn’t lie although, neither does my 3.6m OR… (sigh).

Gameweek 3 Half Dozen

Using shots in the box data from the past 6 Premier League GWs (last four from 19/29 and the first two of 20/21), I have the top 6 picks for GW3 based on their own shots in the box and their upcoming opponents’ shots conceded in the box. For more info into the metric I use, check out my introductory article from the end of August.

Six: Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) v LEI (h)

No Aguero, no problem, right? Kind of. Jesus is blessed that he has Kevin De Bruyne behind him and plays in a team that delivers him a hatful of chances every game. It appears that Jesus is not the clinical striker that would be needed at a lower level Premier League team, such as Burnley. Jesus will score goals. This is because he is given regular opportunities to shoot. He had 2 shots in the box and 3 shots in total in their game against Wolves and had 15 shots in the box in his final 6 games of 2019/20. You can bet your house on Jesus getting chances against a Leicester side without Ndidi and Pereira. Leicester have conceded 46 shots in the box in their last six PL games. They conceded 2 goals vs a Burnley side who only managed 7 goals in their final 6 games in 2019/20. Jesus’ aSITB score is 5.25.

Five: Mo Salah (£12.1m) v ARS (h)

Aka Shotty McShotface. Salah had 2 shots in the box vs a ten man Chelsea in GW2. He was overshadowed by the other lad who scores a lot for Liverpool. Salah has had 24 shots in the box in his last 6 Premier League games. This is the most of any player in the league. His opponents, Arsenal, are looking slightly better than the “banter club” label they have been christened with over the years. Their defence is looking more resolute. They have conceded only one goal in their first two games. Although, they have allowed 56 shots in the box in their last  6 Premier League matches. Salah’s aSITB score is 5.71.

Four: Ollie Watkins (£6m) v FUL (a)

This is a strange one. This is largely based on the opponent (Fulham) and predictions based on Watkins’ last game (SHU). With Grealish alongside or playing behind him, there’s a strong possibility that Watkins gets scoring chances. He had 3 shots in the box against Sheffield United. As for Fulham, they have shown that they are about as solid, defensively, as they were the last time they were in the division. They have conceded 7 goals and 17 shots in the box in their first 2 games. If Watkins can show glimpses of his finishing ability he showed at Brentford, he could get on the score sheet against a leaky Fulham side. Watkins’ aSITB score is 5.75.

Three: Callum Wilson (£6.5m) v TOT (a)

Tottenham are awful. Newcastle are awful. Tottenham scored 5 in their last game and this was due to a massive tactical failure of Ralph Hasenhüttl. Spurs did allow Southampton to score 2 goals. Newcastle were dreadful against Brighton. Bruce had similar failings to Hasenhüttl and these were exploited by Brighton. I can see goals in Tottenham v Newcastle, who will get them is very questionable but if Newcastle are going to score a goal, it’s going to be Callum Wilson, who gets it. Tottenham have conceded 63 shots in the box in their last 6 league games and are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Wilson has had 11 shots in the box in his last 6 league games and I think Tottenham will be a game that Newcastle will get joy from trying to counter attack even if they don’t win. Wilson’s aSITB score is 6.17.

Two: Che Adams (£5.9m) v BUR (a)

Feel free to scroll past this. It feels like the “Che Train” is just a wagon that keeps teasing a big old “full steam ahead”. Adams has had a similar amount of shots as Ings but currently trails to him 2-0 for goals. He has had 12 shots in the box in his last 6 PL games. His opponents, Burnley, conceded 4 goals and 11 shots in the box in their first league game of the season. This could be the game where Che gets his first, well deserved, goal. His aSITB score is 6.50.

One: Timo Werner (£9.5m) v WBA (a)

At time of writing, Werner has been bought by 138k players and sold by 349k. He’s the “Target WBA” pick this week. It’s really hard to look past Werner getting his first Premier League goal against a side that has conceded 30 shots, 24 shots in the box and 8 goals in 2 games. WBA look like a team destined to join the Norwich 19/20, Fulham 18/19 and Stoke 17/18 School of Premier League defending. Werner is yet to score but it’s difficult to ignore that this Chelsea team are yet to click and play together consistently. Werner has had 5 shots in the box in his first 2 games. I expect Werner to, at least, double that total by the time the full time whistle blows at the Hawthorns. His aSITB score is 7.25.

Thar She Blows!

I hope GW3 is more enjoyable but equally as high scoring for y’all. As ever, I really appreciate the readership. As ever, hit me up with comments, thoughts and feedback!

Until next time,

Matt 🌿🐲 @LeafyDragon_FPL